The Keys to the White House, also known as the 13 keys, is a prediction system for determining the outcome of presidential elections in the United States. It was developed by American historian Allan Lichtman and Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981, adapting methods that Keilis-Borok designed for earthquake prediction .

2024年11月8日 · Lichtman shared the two major reasons his "13 Keys to the White House" prediction system failed this year, including disdain for the Biden-Harris administration and Harris' delayed campaign...

The Keys to the White House: The Outlook for 2024 Allan J. Lichtman Since 1996, I have apprised readers of Social Education of my predicted presidential elec-tion results based on the Keys to the White House. The Keys are a historical-based index system for predicting the results of American presidential

2016年5月4日 · Luckily, American University's Distinguished Professor of History Allan Lichtman is offering a tried-and-true formula that has correctly predicted every presidential election outcome since Ronald Reagan’s 1984 re-election.

Lichtman is best known for the election forecasting system presented in his books The Thirteen Keys to the Presidency and The Keys to the White House. He has correctly predicted nine of the eleven presidential elections held since 1984 by using his keys.

2024年9月29日 · What are Allan Lichtman's 13 keys to pick the winner, and why did he choose Kamala Harris over Donald Trump? Lichtman developed the metrics for his predictions with the help of...

2020年5月11日 · Lichtman’s predictions are based on 13 questions, each with a “true” or “false” answer. “True” answers favor the incumbent party. If five or fewer answers are “false,” the incumbent party retains the presidency; if six or more are “false,” the challenger wins.

2024年9月5日 · Lichtman’s prediction is based on 13 Keys, a model he developed with Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981. The 13 Keys ignore all polls and pollsters. They focus on 13 true-false statements. If six or more of the keys are false, the incumbent party is predicted to lose the election.

The 13 Keys to the White House Source: Allan J. Lichtman, The Keys to the White House (2005), post-2004 election ed. The Keys are statements that favour the reelection of the incumbent party. When five or fewer statements are false, the incumbent party wins. When six or more are false, the challenging party wins. 1.

2024年12月3日 · Professor Allan Lichtman predicts presidential elections with his 13 keys system, using historical data, politics, and social trends to forecast outcomes, including voter turnout and party performance. Menu; David Brown. Search for; ... Allan Lichtman was born on April 4, 1947, in Bronx, New York. He grew up in a family of modest means and ...

2024年8月6日 · Yet Allan Lichtman, the noted historian and election prognosticator, is unimpressed with polls as predictive tools (he is mostly right). Instead, he relies on 13 keys to predict the winner of the...

2024年8月13日 · Presidential historian Allan Lichtman's "Keys to the White House" model has long been hailed as a reliable predictor of U.S. election outcomes. Developed in 1981, the model uses 13 true/false...

2024年10月30日 · The Keys comprise 13 true-false questions that gauge the strength and performance of the party holding the White House, with an answer of true favoring the incumbent’s reelection. If six or more of the keys are false, the incumbent party is a predicted loser; otherwise, they are a predicted winner.

2024年8月2日 · Professor Allan Lichtman’s 13 Keys to the White House offer a unique and reliable method for forecasting presidential elections. By focusing on historical patterns and broad indicators rather than short-term trends and polling data, Lichtman has provided a valuable framework for understanding what drives election outcomes.

2024年10月23日 · Developed in 1981 with mathematician Vladimir Keilis-Borok, Lichtman’s formula of 13 keys to the White House has helped him make overwhelmingly accurate predictions ever since. He says that if the party holding the White House loses six of those keys, that party will probably lose the election.

2008年3月1日 · Lichtman’s predictions are based on 13 questions (see box), each with a “yes” or “no” answer. “Yes” answers favor the incumbent party. If five or fewer answers are “no,” the incumbent party retains the presidency; if six or more are “no,” the challenger wins.

2025年1月20日 · Lichtman’s notable achievements include the development of the “13 Keys to the Presidency,” a system used to predict the outcome of presidential elections. Early Life and Education Allan Lichtman was born on April 4, 1947, in Brooklyn, New York. He grew up in a family that valued education and encouraged his curiosity about history and ...

2020年10月28日 · We asked Lichtman to describe how the keys are turning right now, and how the pandemic, the fight for racial justice, the economy, and other issues affect our presidential elections. In 2016, your 13 keys correctly predicted a Trump win.

2024年11月6日 · Allan Lichtman in his 13 Keys to the White House has been predicting a victory for Donald Trump since day one. Initially he predicted a win for Joe Biden and even after Biden pulled out of the race, he predicted a win for Kamala Harris.

Historian Allan Lichtman, who has devised an elaborate method to predict election results, the 13 keys to the White House, has said The New York Times will release his 2024 presidential...

2024年9月10日 · Historian Allan Lichtman has announced his prediction on whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris will win the 2024 presidential election. ... What are the 13 keys to a successful election campaign ...

2024年9月8日 · WASHINGTON - Allan Lichtman, the historian who correctly predicted the outcome of 9 out of the 10 most recent presidential elections, has made his guess on who will reclaim the White House this year.. Spoiler alert: it’s Vice President Kamala Harris. Lichtman said in a video, first reported by The New York Times, that he based his prediction on thirteen keys …